Negotiation #10. Find the Black Swan.
FINDING THE LEVERAGE IN PRDICITABLEY UNPRIDITABLE. In every negotiation there are different kind of information, there are things we know about counterpart known known. There are known unknown like poker card. You know they are out there, but don’t know who has them. Maybe counterpart wants the deal to fall because he is leaving for comptitor, then there are unknown unknown.
UNCOVERING UNKOWN UNKOWN. Usually in every negotiation each side is in the possession of three black swan. Three piece of information if discovered would change everything. Unless correctly interrogated most people are not able to articulate what they want. To know these UNKOWN we must ask a lot of question and listen intently.
THREE TYPES OF LEVERAGE. The black swan are leverage multiplier. In theory leverage is the ablity to inflict loss and withhold gains. It often doesn’t matter what leverage exist but the leverage you think they have on you. That’s why you always have leverage. Sure kidnapper has something you want, but you have something they lust for.
Leverage has a lot of input like time, necessity and completion. If you have to sell the house now, you have less leverage, if you have to but dont have a deadline better, if people are competing even better. You have to presuade your counterpart that they have something real to loose if the deal is off.
POSITIVE LEVERAGE. Your ability as negotiator to provide or withhold that your counterpart wants. You can use your offer to kick off the competition war or atleast make them to force the choice. And that’s why experienced negotiator delay making offer.
NEGATIVE LEVERAGE. It is the kind of leverage that makes other person suffer. This sort of leverage gets people attention because of loss of aversion. Threat is like nuclear bomb and left toxic residue hard to clean. Another subtle way is to lable it. It seems you don’t care what position you are leaving me in.
NORMATIVE LEVERAGE. Normative leverage is using the other person norms and standard to advance your position. If you can show inconsistency in their behaviour and beliefs you have normative leverage. No one wants to look like a hypocritical. Discovering the black swan that gives you normative leverage is as easy as asking what your counterpart believe and listening intently.
KNOW THEIR RELIGION. Once you understood your counterpart worldview you can now influence it. Listen, listen again and listen some more.
THE SIMILARITY PRINCIPLE. We trust people more when we see them more smiliar or familiar. Similiarity as shallow as same collage increase rapport.
THE POWER OF HOPE AND DREAMS. When someone show passion for what we have always wanted and Connery a purposeful plan of how to get there.
USING A REASON. Because..
ITS NOT TRUE CRAZY IT’S CLUE. We have chosen to not understand their religion, fanatism, delusions intstead we shrug of and say they are crazy. You can’t get the stuff unless we talk. That’s crazy is the often the best moment of descovering black swan.
MISTAKE-1 they are ILL INFORMED. Often the other side is acting on the bad info. When executive has an outside firm did the audit he withdrew. The point is people operating with incomplete information appears crazy to those with different information. When you face them supply them with necessary information.
MISTAKE-2. THEY ARE CONSTRAINED. The ceo he has influence with changed.
MISTAKE-3 THEY HAVE OTHER INTEREST. Maybe it is the end of the year and he don’t want more orders.
GET FACE TIME. Emails gives too much time to recenter.
OBSERVERD UNGUARDED MOMENTS. First few minutes and last few minutes are quiet powerful.
WHEN IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE THERE IS CENTS TO MAKE. Why someone wants to sell 100% occupied building a cash cow.
LEARN THE NEGOTIATION. Everyone hates the negotiaton at first. Idea of tossing out extreme anchor is trumatic.